2-Bedroom Mayfair Airbnb Revenue Case Study | 2026 Model

Estimated Net Owner Income Comparison

Conditional full-year short-let scenario: 255.5 occupied nights × £425 ADR = £108,588 gross accommodation revenue. Long let: £6,396 × 12 = £76,752 scheduled rent; after 4% voids, £73,682 is collected. No short-let void deduction is added because occupancy already accounts for empty nights.

Annual comparison: short let / long let

Accommodation revenue / scheduled long-let rent: £108,588 / £76,752.

Long-let void allowance (4% of scheduled rent): £0 / £3,070.

Revenue after voids: £108,588 / £73,682.

Management (18% short let; 12% long let): £19,546 / £8,842.

Platform/payment allowance (15.5% short let): £16,831 / £0.

Maintenance reserve (5% of received revenue): £5,429 / £3,684.

Utilities, broadband and council tax allowance: £4,800 / £0.

Insurance allowance: £600 / £600.

Safety/compliance allowance: £300 / £300.

Cleaning/linen shortfall reserve: £750 / £0.

Furniture/replacement reserve: £1,000 / £0.

Letting/setup annualised allowance: £0 / £600.

Service charge/ground rent allowance: £4,500 / £4,500.

Estimated net owner income before finance and tax: £54,831 / £55,156.

Estimated net difference: −£325 a year (−0.6%) for short letting versus long letting. Amounts are rounded to whole pounds independently; totals and percentages use unrounded calculations.

Exactly what the cost assumptions mean

These are illustrative budgets, not supplier quotes. Short-let management is modelled at 15% plus VAT, treated as 18% cash cost with no VAT recovery, consistent with the standard full-time plan on our pricing page. It is charged here on gross accommodation revenue before platform fees. Long-let management is a separate assumed 10% plus VAT (12%) of collected rent, not a StayinLondon quote. The 15.5% short-let platform/payment allowance is modelled on accommodation revenue; the actual channel mix and tax treatment can differ. See Airbnb service-fee guidance.

Guest-paid cleaning and linen receipts and the matching supplier costs are excluded as pass-through amounts, with no cleaning profit assumed. The £750 reserve covers unrecovered cleaning, deep cleans and platform/management fees on cleaning receipts; any excess reduces owner income. Long-let tenants are assumed to pay utilities and council tax; any owner liability during voids must be added. The £4,500 building-cost allowance is identical on both sides and must be replaced with the actual service charge and ground rent. Insurance excludes any building insurance already inside that charge.

Maintenance, furniture, compliance and letting costs are annual reserves/allowances, not recorded expenditure. Net owner income here means rental receipts after every listed operating cost and reserve, but before mortgage/finance costs, owner income or corporation tax, initial furnishing/refurbishment, major works and exceptional losses. No accommodation VAT payable by the owner is modelled; if applicable, the revenue and tax calculation must be rebuilt before relying on it.

Availability and planning condition

This full-year scenario assumes the property has the necessary planning permission and all other consents for the modelled short-let use. It is not a 90-night-limited residential forecast. London short letting beyond 90 nights generally requires planning permission. Calling bookings medium-term, or making them several weeks long, does not automatically remove that requirement. Check the actual permitted use, lease, mortgage and insurance; see Westminster Council guidance and our 90-day rule service.

At a 90-night cap, even selling all 90 nights at this ADR yields only £38,250 gross accommodation revenue before costs. Do not use the full-year net estimate in that situation. A lawful mixed-let strategy needs its own rates, stay lengths, occupancy and cost model.

Sensitivity

At the same ADR and costs, occupancy ten percentage points lower (60%) reduces estimated annual short-let net income to £45,291. At base occupancy, ADR 10% lower reduces it to £48,153. These are separate downside tests, not confidence intervals. Breaking even with the modelled long-let net requires approximately £427 ADR at 70% occupancy, with the same cost and permission assumptions.

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